If the current trends continue, the number of daily coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Metro Manila may not surpass 6,000 to 7,000 cases by the end of September, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said Friday, Sept. 3.
“The highest number reported in the NCR [National Capital Region] during this wave [Aug. 15-Aug. 31] was 5,590 on Aug. 30. [If] the current seven-day average is 4,738, the projection based on trends shows the NCR will not have more than 6,000 to 7,000 new cases per day,” he said in a Twitter post.
David also noted that Metro Manila may not exceed 60,000 active cases by the end of September, which will likely be similar to the April COVID-19 surge.
He noted that Metro Manila currently has 41,000 active cases.
“I don’t think NCR will have more than 60,000 active cases by end of September. It is possible it could go up to 70,000 but I am sticking with the lower estimate,” he said.
“The current scenario is headed for 30,000 to 40,000 active cases by end of September,” he added.
Reacting to the projection of the Department of Health of 16,000 to 43,000 daily cases in Metro Manila by end of September, David said that the numbers may be “bloated.”
“It is bloated. If we have 16,000 new cases per day in the NCR, the hospitals won’t be able to handle it. Deaths will exceed CFR [case fatality rate] expectations. [That is] more than 200 deaths from NCR alone,” he said.
OCTA projected that the reproduction number of COVID-19 n Metro Manila may fall below 1 and will likely see a downward trend in the next three weeks.
David said that Metro Manila’s reproduction number was at 1.39, as of Sept. 2, down from the 1.9 in early August.
This means that the rate of infection is slowing down.
Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual and is the primary indicator used by OCTA to study COVID trends in the country.