OCTA: Metro Manila’s COVID-19 reproduction number down to 1.39

Published September 2, 2021, 10:45 AM

by Jhon Aldrin Casinas

The reproduction number of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Metro Manila decreased to 1.39 which is below the “critical” level, the OCTA Research said Thursday, Sept. 2.

OCTA Research

In its latest monitoring report, OCTA said the National Capital Region (NCR) averaged 4,637 new cases per day from Aug. 26 to Sept. 1, an increase of 12 percent from the daily average in the previous week.

Experts reported that Metro Manila’s reproduction number, which refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual, is below the critical level cutoff of 1.4.

“Based on the current trends, it is possible that the reproduction number in the NCR may decrease below 1 by the third week of September,” OCTA said. “Until then, we should expect new cases to continue to increase, albeit at a slower growth rate.”

Reproduction number

According to the latest OCTA report, the reproduction number in 11 out of 17 localities in the metropolis were at “critical” levels.

These areas are Pateros, San Juan, Makati, Navotas, Taguig, Muntinlupa, Pasig, Parañaque, Malabon, Mandaluyong, and Marikina.

Meanwhile, the reproduction number in Quezon City, Manila, Valenzuela, Pasay, Las Piñas, and Caloocan dipped to “high” levels.

Average daily attack rate

The independent research group said that NCR’s average daily attack rate (ADAR) was within the “critical” level at 33.20 per 100,000 population per day, adding that the ADAR in 14 out of 17 areas in the region were at the “critical” level as well.

These areas are Pateros, San Juan, Makati, Navotas, Taguig, Muntinlupa, Pasig, Parañaque, Pasay, Malabon, Mandaluyong, Las Piñas, Valenzuela, and Manila.

On the other hand, the ADAR in Marikina, Caloocan, and Quezon City were at “high” levels.

The region’s average positivity rate from Aug. 25 to 31 was pegged at 24 percent.

Bed occupancy

OCTA reported that the hospital bed occupancy for COVID-19 patients in the metropolis was at 69 percent, while the intensive care unit (ICU) utilization rate was at 71 percent.

Based on their report, Pateros reached 100 percent occupancy for hospital beds, while ICU occupancy in San Juan, Las Piñas, and Marikina was at 100 percent.