PH COVID-19 cases may reach 4M by end of 2021 — UP expert

Published August 31, 2021, 8:58 AM

by Jaleen Ramos

The University of the Philippines (UP) Pandemic Response Team on Tuesday, Aug. 31, said that the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the country might reach three to four million by the end of the year.


“Ito pong projections namin kung titingnan, lumalabas ang cumulative cases possible tayo lumagpas ng three million at even four million bago matapos ang 2021 (If you look at our projections, cumulative cases show that it is possible that we will exceed three million and even four million before the end of 2021),” said Dr. Jomar Rabajante of the UP Pandemic Response Team in an interview with DzMM Teleradyo.

On Monday, Aug. 30, the country recorded 22,366 new COVID-19 cases, the highest in a single day since the pandemic began in March last year.

Rabajante said that the country might reach up to 30,000 new daily cases until the end of September while infections will likely peak at early October.

“Marami mga scenerios kaming sinumulate. Posibleng mas bumilis, mas tumaas. Posibleng ‘yung ating mga interventions ay maging epektibo o bumaba, pero itong pagbaba sa aming mga simulation ay kokonti lang ang scenarios na lumabas na ganito (We’ve simulated a lot of scenarios… It is possible to speed up, to increase. It is possible that our interventions will be effective or go down, but this decrease in our simulations only a few scenarios came out),” he said.

Rabajante said there were also scenarios that intensive care units in the National Capital Region (NCR) might be enough but could also be overwhelmed while hospitals in the country might reach overcapacity.

“Hindi lang po sa NCR, sa buong bansa —-Region IV, III, hanggang Visayas, Mindanao– matataas po at dire-diretsong pagtaas ang mga kaso (Not only in the NCR, in the whole country — Region IV, III, up to Visayas, Mindanao — the number of cases is high and increasing),” he said.

Rabajante also said that the reimplementation of the quarantine protocols were not as effective compared to the previous months.

“Minomononitor din naman namin ‘yung tinatawag na Google mobility ng mga tao at ‘yung mobility hindi rin ganon din na-su-suppress… Kung titignan natin, may iba na na dynamics na nangyayari in terms of our lockdowns (We are also monitoring the so -called google mobility of the people and the mobility is not suppressed… If we look, there are other dynamics happening in terms of our lockdowns),” he said.

Rabajante, meanwhile, reiterated that minimum health standards must still be observed as well as to ramp up the vaccination programs in the country.