If current trends continue, PH may hit 16k daily COVID-19 cases next week — OCTA Research

Published August 16, 2021, 10:07 AM

by Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz


The Philippines may reach 16,000 daily new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases next week as infections continue to rise in most parts of the country, an expert of the OCTA Research said on Monday, Aug. 16.

“Although nakapag-14,000 [cases] na tayo in two straight days, ‘yung daily average natin is 11,800. Tumaas siya ng 35 percent sa nakaraang linggo. Ibig sabihin kung magpatuloy itong 35 percent, next week baka nasa almost 16,000 ang daily average natin kasi bumibilis yung pagtaas sa ibang lugar,” OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said in a GMA interview.

(Although we recorded 14,000 cases for two straight days, our daily average is 11,800. It increased by 35 percent last week. This means that if it continues at 35 percent, by next week we may be averaging almost 16,000 daily cases because the rise in cases is accelerating in other areas).

“Depende kung ano yung mangyayari between now and by next week. Pero sa ngayon kasi ‘yung daily average natin tumataas sa buong bansa,” David added.

(It depends on what will happen between now and next week. But right now, our daily average is rising all over the country).

He noted that Metro Manila had a slight decrease in the reported cases on Sunday, Aug. 15 but other areas in the country saw a rapid increase in their cases.

“Masaya tayo kahit papano, sa Metro Manila hindi siya tumaas kahapon [Aug. 15]. Bumaba siya ng konti kasi ‘nung Saturday 3,989 cases pero kahapon 3,640. In fact, kahapon mas mababa siya kaysa dun sa past three days so may hope naman na baka may makikita tayong epekto ng enhanced community quarantine sa Metro Manila. Pero ganun pa man tumataas yung kaso sa buong bansa,” David said.

(We are somehow happy because the number of cases in Metro Manila did not increase on Aug.15. In fact, it slightly decreased because last Saturday we had 3,989 cases but yesterday it was 3,640. It was even lower than the reported cases in the past three days so there is hope that we may see the effect of the enhanced community quarantine in Metro Manila. But then again, the number of cases is still rising nationwide).

He noted that the country’s COVID-19 reproduction number continues to increase as it is now at 1.5 from 1.46 during the previous day. This means that an infected individual can infect up to two people.

Meanwhile, the reproduction number in Metro Manila remains at 1.9.