Tropical depression “Fabian” has intensified slightly while moving towards the eastern limit of the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) on Saturday, July 17, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 5 a.m. weather bulletin.
PAGASA estimated the location of the center of Fabian at 1,365 kilometers east of extreme northern Luzon with maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to 70 kph.
Fabian is seen to intensify into a tropical storm within 12 hours, and further into a typhoon by Wednesday evening, July 21, or Thursday morning, July 22.
While it may remain offshore throughout the forecast period, PAGASA said Fabian is expected to continue to enhance the southwest monsoon or “habagat” that could trigger light to moderate with at times heavy rains over northern Palawan, Occidental Mindoro, Antique, and Aklan in the next 24 hours.
Metro Manila and the rest of the country will also have partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with rain showers and thunderstorms due to the southwest monsoon and localized thunderstorms.
PAGASA said Fabian will likely move northward or north-northwestward and leave the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) briefly on Sunday morning, July 18.
Fabian may re-enter the PAR before making its final exit, through the northern boundary, between Monday evening, July 19, and Tuesday morning, July 20.
“However, due to the uncertainty in model guidance at this portion of the track forecast, there remains a possibility that Fabian may still be inside the PAR beyond Monday,” it pointed out.