Tropical depression “Fabian” has maintained its strength over the Philippine Sea east of extreme northern Luzon on Saturday, July 17, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 11 a.m. tropical cyclone bulletin.
PAGASA estimated the location of Fabian at 1,245 kilometers east of extreme northern Luzon, while it maintained its maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to 70 kph.
Fabian will likely intensify into a tropical storm within 12 hours, and into a typhoon by Tuesday morning, July 20.
While it may remain offshore throughout the forecast period, PAGASA said Fabian is expected to continue to enhance the southwest monsoon or “habagat” that could trigger light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Palawan and Occidental Mindoro in the next 24 hours.
“Flash floods and rain-induced landslides are possible during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps,” PAGASA warned.
Metro Manila and the rest of the country will also have partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with rain showers and thunderstorms due to the southwest monsoon and localized thunderstorms.
Fabian will likely leave the country’s area of responsibility between Monday evening, July 19, and Tuesday morning. July 20.
PAGASA said the tropical cyclone is seen to move towards the southern portion of Ryukyu Islands in the next few days.