La Niña may return in October, November — PAGASA

Published July 16, 2021, 3:44 PM

by Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz


The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Friday, July 16, said there is now more than 50 percent chance that the La Niña could reemerge later this year.

La Niña is characterized by unusually cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

“Based on the current conditions and model forecasts, there is more than fifty percent chance that La Niña will develop in either late October or November 2021, which may last through the first quarter of 2022,” PAGASA said in a La Niña Watch statement on July 16.

“With this development, above normal rainfall conditions are expected over some parts of the country in the coming several months. Potential adverse impacts of the developing La Niña include floods and landslides over vulnerable areas, with varying magnitude,” the State weather bureau explained.

PAGASA officially announced the end of the La Niña 2020-2021 event on June 2, 2021.

In recent months, PAGASA has not discounted the possible reemergence of La Niña, citing that the last six episodes were back-to-back La Niña events.

These back-to-back events occurred in 2007-2008 and 2008-2009; 2010-2011 and 2011-2012; and 2016-2017 and 2017-2018.

PAGASA said it has been continuously monitoring the possible reemergence of La Niña since April 2021.

It advised all concerned agencies to take precautionary measures to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of the reemerging La Niña.