OCTA sees continuous 'flat' trend of COVID-19 infections in Metro Manila

Published July 13, 2021, 3:59 PM

by Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz


The weekly growth rate in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) during the past three weeks has been “nearly level or flat,” OCTA Research said on Tuesday, July 13.

OCTA’s monitoring showed that NCR had an average of 634 new COVID-19 cases per day for the period July 6 to 12, which is 2 percent lower than the previous week’s daily average of 646.

“Over the past three weeks, the weekly growth rate has averaged (negative) -3 percent, which indicates that the trend is nearly level or flat, i.e. neither increasing nor decreasing,” the group explained.

It cited that the reproduction number in the NCR was 0.93 over the same period, which is “very close” to 1.

Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual.

“Yung pag-plateau ng cases, pag flatten ng trend hindi naman siya masama especially sa NCR kasi we can live with 600 cases per day. Hindi na siya ganun kataas (The plateauing of cases, flattening of the trend is not bad especially in the NCR because we can live with 600 cases per day. It is no longer that high). In fact, that level is considered moderate,” OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said in a televised briefing on Tuesday.

“Hopefully, once na marami na tayong nabakunahan, bababa pa yan (we have conducted more vaccinations, the number of cases will further go down). Kapag naka 20 to 30 percent fully vaccinated we expect may effect din yan sa numbers natin (If we have fully vaccinated 20 to 30 percent of our target, we expect that that will affect our numbers as well),” he added.

Metro Manila’s incidence rate or the average daily attack rate was 4.59 per day per 100,000.

Meanwhile, the positivity rate remained at 6 percent over an average of 22,000 tests per day.

Health care utilization in Metro Manila was also manageable with 35 percent hospital bed occupancy, 42 percent ICU bed occupancy, and 30 percent mechanical ventilator occupancy.

Among the local government units (LGUs) of Metro Manila, Pateros registered the lowest COVID-19 cases with only two.

All the LGUs had incidence rates below 10, which means all the LGUs are classified as “moderate” risk, but Caloocan is “close to being classified as low risk.”

LGUs that had incidence lower than five per day were Caloocan, Marikina, Pateros, Valenzuela, Malabon, Quezon City, Manila, and Navotas.

David said that OCTA has also observed decreasing new COVID-19 cases in regions outside NCR.

“Nakita natin nag slowdown na yung rate ng infection in many areas outside NCR na dating binabantayan natin as areas of concern (We have seen a slowing down in the rate of infection in many areas outside NCR that we used to monitor as areas of concern),” he pointed out.

“In other regions naman nakikita natin na nagsisimula ng bumaba (cases are starting to decline). We expect na yung (that the) 5,000 cases per day bababa pa yan baka (could decrease further) within the next few weeks,” he added.