The OCTA Research Team projected that the number of daily coronavirus cases in Metro Manila may decrease to around 1,000 cases per day by the end of the month should the government extend the modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) in the metropolis.
OCTA Research fellow Prof. Guido David explained the current downward trend in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Metro Manila will be sustained if the MECQ will be extended.
OCTA said that the reproduction number in the National Capital Region (NCR) has gone down to 0.65 for the period of May 4 to 10 from 1.54 during the peak of the surge.
The independent research group reported that the average daily cases in the metropolis has declined to 1,944 cases per day over the past week, an improvement from an average of 5,549 daily cases from March 29 to April 4.
“So kung magi-extend tayo, we’re projecting na bababa tayo to almost 1,000 cases per day by the end of May (So if we extend, we’re projecting that we’ll go down to almost 1,000 cases per day by the end of May),” David said in a televised GMA News interview.
But he said that downward trend in daily cases could also be maintained even if the authorities ease restrictions as long as it will be done in a “gradual and calibrated” manner.
The OCTA said daily attack rate of the virus in the region was 14.08 per 100,000 population in the previous week, a significant drop from 40.20 during the peak of the surge.
The positivity rate in the metropolis has also decreased to 13 percent for the period of May 4 to 10, compared to a rate of 25 percent in March 29 to April 4.
However, experts noted that the average daily number of tests conducted in the previous week dipped to 22,763 compared to an average of 26,289 tests per day during the peak of the surge.