OCTA: NCR’s COVID-19 cases to drop below 3K if reproduction number holds at 0.85

Published May 2, 2021, 11:20 PM

by Jhon Aldrin Casinas

The OCTA Research Team has estimated that the daily new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Metro Manila will decrease to 3,000 or below in the coming weeks if the reproduction number will be maintained.


In its latest monitoring report, OCTA said the reproduction rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) was 0.83 for the period of April 25 to May 1, with indicators showing that the reproduction number may be stabilizing between 0.8 to 0.9

“If the reproduction number holds at 0.85, the number of new cases per day in the NCR should decrease to 3,000 for May 2 to 8 and 2,800 for May 9 to 15,” the OCTA report stated Sunday, May 2.

The OCTA report noted that the NCR had an average of 3,144 new cases over the past seven days, which is equivalent to a decrease of 18 percent compared to the previous week.

It added that the current average is 43 percent lower compared to the peak seven-day average of 5,551.

But experts warned that if the reproduction rate increases again, there would be concerns regarding the quarantine classification currently imposed in areas within NCR-plus.

“If the reproduction number begins to increase again, there will be concern about the current quarantine restrictions in the NCR Plus,” the report stated.

The OCTA report indicated that the positivity rate in the NCR over the past week declined to 17 percent, based on an average of 24,450 tests per day.

Four weeks ago, it noted that the positivity rate in the NCR peaked at 25 percent during the height of the surge.

Moreover, hospital bed occupancy in the region decreased to 56 percent while the occupancy of beds in the intensive care unit (ICU) remained at 71 percent.

“ICU occupancy did not increase because ICU bed capacity was increased to 1,125. However, the 804 ICU beds occupied is the highest in the NCR since the start of the pandemic. This means demand for ICUs is still increasing,” the report said.

Average daily attack rate

The OCTA report showed that Navotas City had the lowest average daily attack rate (ADAR) of 12.36 per 100,000 population from April 25 to May 1 out of the 17 local government units (LGUs) in the NCR.

Other LGUs with low ADAR were Manila (15.62), Caloocan (16.08), Muntinlupa (16.27), Malabon (16.33), Pasay (20.13) and Quezon City (21.00).

But the group pointed out that the ADAR above 10 per 100,000 population is still high.

Compared to the previous week, OCTA said that all LGUs in the region had a decrease in number of daily new cases.

But experts noted that “LGUs with a higher decrease from peak does not necessarily mean that these LGUs had the best pandemic response, because the peak in new cases in other LGUs may not have been as high.”