The trough or extension of the tropical storm with international name "Surigae" could cause severe thunderstorms in Mindanao in the next 24 hours, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Wednesday afternoon, April 14.
In the PAGASA 's 4 p.m. weather bulletin, the tropical storm was estimated at 1,165 kilometers east of Mindanao at around 3 p.m.
PAGASA said Surigae is still on track to enter the Philippine area of responsibility by Friday, April 16, and once inside, it will be given a local name "Bising."
It has maintained its maximum sustained winds of 75 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to 90 kph while moving northwest at 10 kph.
"Wala namang significant na epekto pa sa bansa pero yung trough or extension ng sirkulasyon ay magko-cause ng severe thunderstorms sa Mindanao. But generally fair weather condition pa rin ang mararanasan sa ibang bahagi ng bansa. (There is no significant effect in the country yet but the trough or extension of the circulation will cause severe thunderstorms in Mindanao. But generally fair weather conditions will still be experienced in other parts of the country," PAGASA weather specialist Joey Figuracion said in its weather forecast.
Surigae remains less likely to directly affect the country over the next three days, he added.
The weather disturbance is seen to intensify into a severe tropical storm within 24 hours, and reach the typhoon category within 48 hours.
The public, as well as the concerned disaster risk reduction and management offices situated in the eastern portions of Southern Luzon and Visayas, were advised to continuously monitor developments regarding this tropical cyclone.
"Considering the uncertainty in the track forecast of this storm, a westward shift in the current forecast track may result in potentially significant impacts over the aforementioned areas over the weekend, from April 17 to 18, and onto Monday, April 19," PAGASA said in its weather advisory.
In a press briefing on Wednesday noon, weather specialist Ariel Rojas said Catanduanes and the northeast part of Samar are within Surigae's cone of probability by April 19, Monday, which means there is a chance that the outer circulation of the storm may directly affect these areas.
Due to the possible effect of the outer circulation of the storm, PAGASA may raise tropical cyclone wind signal number 1 or 2 over Bicol region and Eastern Visayas in the coming days, he said.