Hospital utilization in the National Capital Region (NCR) will remain high despite the drop in the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the metropolis, a member of an independent research group said Sunday, April 11.
In an interview over radio DZBB, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Butch Ong said the reproduction rate of COVID-19 in Metro Manila has decreased to 1.23 from the 1.88 following the imposition of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ).
“Yung reproduction number natin talaga ngayon, bagkus ay bumababa, mataas pa din ang mga hospital utilization (Our reproduction number right now, although it is decreasing, hospital utilization is still high,” Ong said.
Despite the improvement in the reproduction number, he noted that the average stay of a COVID-19 patient in the hospital is between two to three weeks.
He explained that if a COVID-19 patient was confined to a hospital on April 1, just a few days after the start of the ECQ in the National Capital Region (NCR)-plus, the patient is estimated to be discharged over 20 days later.
“Ibig sabihin nito, kahit na ibaba natin ang ECQ ngayon, marami pa ring pasyente dun sa ospital at yung ating healthcare facility ay baka ma-strain na (This means that even if we downgrade the ECQ now, there are still many patients in the hospital and our healthcare facility may be strained),” he added.
The health expert lamented that healthcare workers may no longer be able to cope with the increasing number of patients seeking for medical attention.
“We must flatten the curve so that the hospitals and the doctors can take care of the patients coming in,” Ong said.
Hospitals have been overwhelmed by the high number of patients following the surge in COVID-19 cases recently.
This prodded the Department of Health to redeploy additional healthcare workers from other regions to augment the need for more medical personnel in hospitals in Metro Manila.
With the metro’s reproduction rate remains above 1.0, OCTA warned that the number of new COVID-19 cases in the NCR will remain high.
“This means that hospitals in the NCR Plus will remain at high utilization in the coming weeks even with a downward trend expected soon, and many COVID-19 patients may not be able to obtain access to medical care,” the group said in its latest monitoring report.
The research group has also recommended the one-week extension of the ECQ in the metropolis and nearby provinces “to continue to slow down the surge, decongest our hospitals and relieve the pressure on our healthcare workers.”
“OCTA believes that opening up the NCR-plus prematurely would be a significant risk as it could accelerate the surge again,” OCTA said.