OCTA Research Team fellow, Dr. Guido David on Saturday, March 27, said the Philippines may hit 740,000 cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) by the end of the month due to continuous rise in daily reported cases.
“‘Yung trajectory natin mga 740,000, mga ganun by end of March pero by April titignan natin. (Our trajectory is about 740,000 by the end of March but by April we will still have to see),” David said in a DZBB interview.
“Kung hindi ganun ka-effective ‘yung interventions natin, posible talaga in one to two months, in April or May [maabot ang 1 million cases]. [Pero] marami na kasing nagbabago kaya mahirap magsabi ng projection dahil may darating tayong mga bakuna. (If our interventions are not that effective, it is really possible in one to two months, in April or May, we could reach 1 million cases. But a lot is changing so it’s hard to give projection because we’re going to have more vaccines),” he added.
David said the reduction of COVID-19 reproduction number is not that fast, although the implementation of the “NCR Plus bubble” has a slight effect on the number.
“May epekto naman ‘yung bubble natin pero hindi ganun kabilis pero syempre posible naman na bumilis next week baka bumaba sa 1.7 or 1.6 [ang reproduction number]. (Our bubble has an effect but not that fast but of course it is possible that it will speed up next week and the reproduction could drop to 1.7 or 1.6),” he pointed out.
OCTA Research Team projected 10,000 to 11,000 daily new COVID-19 cases by the end of March.
David is hoping that the Holy Week break may bring a significant impact on reducing COVID-19 transmissions.
OCTA stressed that adherence to minimum public health standards, such as proper wearing of face mask and face shield, regular washing of hands, and physical distancing, remain a cornerstone in controlling the rise in cases.
David also pointed out that early intervention should have been made when OCTA issued its projection in February.
“Based on science ang ginagawa namin. Maraming hindi naniniwala pero nangyayari na ngayon. (What we are doing is based on science. Many may not believe our projections but it is happening now),” he explained.