An independent research group has estimated that Metro Manila could have 3,000 new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) per day by the end of March.
“Sa Metro Manila ang projection natin is aabot tayo ng 3,000 per day (In Metro Manila, our projection is that we will reach 3,000 per day),” Dr. Guido David of OCTA Research Team said in an interview over radio DZBB.
David said the metropolis logged around 1,400 new cases of COVID-19 on March 6.
“Projections natin sa Metro Manila by March 21, aabot tayo ng mga 2,000 cases, and by March 31, aabot ng 3,000 cases (Our projections for Metro Manila is that by March 21, we will reach 2,000 cases, and by March 31, we will reach 3,000 cases),” David said.
“Hindi naman yan predictions. Hindi naman nating sinasabing sigurado tayong mangyayari (Those are not predictions. We are not saying we are sure it will happen),” he said.
“Ang sinasabi natin kung hindi magbago yung trend natin, yung trajectory, diyan papunta yung bilang ng kaso, pataas ng pataas (What we are saying is that if our trend, the trajectory, does not change, that is where the number of cases is heading, it will rise),” he added.
David said that the metro’s reproduction number is currently as 1.66. The reproduction rate refers to the average number of people that can be infected by a person with COVID-19.
In a separate interview, David said the number of daily infections in the country is estimated to reach an average of 5,000 to 6,000 cases per day by the end of March.
“This not the time to be dilly dallying. We must make solid decisions,” David said in an interview over radio DZMM.
“We could be at 4,000 by next week, and then two weeks we could be at 5,000 based on the projections we saw, and by the end of March we could be at 6,000 cases,” he explained.
“That would be a lot of cases and our healthcare system would be overwhelmed,” he added.