For former Kabataan Party-List Rep. Terry Ridon, the Philippines’ "mad rush" to sign a vaccine supply deal with AstraZeneca isn't justified.
In a statement over the weekend, Ridon underscored that the British–Swedish multinational pharmaceutical firm itself said that it would still carry out a new global trial using the vaunted lower-dose regimen that resulted in 90 percent efficacy.
"This means that the Philippines had absolutely no business signing the vaccine deal as yet," Ridon said, referring to the supply deal for 2.6 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine.
"It’s good to pin our hopes on groundbreaking vaccines, but this hope should be grounded on science. Only in the Philippines and Thailand are we seeing a mad rush to sign with AstraZeneca at this stage," noted the lawyer, who is now the convenor of public policy thinktank Infrawatch PH.
Ridon said Mene Pangalos, AstraZeneca’s head of biopharmaceuticals R&D (research and development) confirmed that the low-dose trial included nobody over the age of 55.
“With the new global trials involving the low-dose regimen, it is premature for government to make a supply commitment to AstraZeneca, unless and until there is a showing that the new trials will yield the same ninety-percent efficacy rating in its limited trial run," he said.
The former congressman is of the opinion that the AstraZeneca vaccine is "moderately effective" at best.
Ridon said fewer than 3,000 people in the United Kingdom were given a lower-dose regimen--originally by accident--where the vaccine’s efficacy rose to 90 percent. However, the efficacy rate was only 62 percent with the trial volunteers in Brazil and the UK, he said.
He said Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines have a 94 percent efficacy rating. "We can argue endlessly regarding the low-temperature storage requirements of these two vaccines, but we cannot argue that its efficacy ratings had been sufficiently proven.”
Opting for the higher efficacy vaccines translates to further unburdening the healthcare system and ensuring the survival of a greater number of Filipinos, Ridon reckoned.
He said vaccines that have a 70 percent average efficacy mean that in two sets of 100 vaccinated individuals, 30 of them may still be infected by the coronavirus.
“Contrast this with only six vaccinated individuals who may still be infected by the coronavirus with a vaccine with 94 percent efficacy rating. We can save more people with high efficacy vaccines by a multiple of five.”
Using this math, Ridon said the 2.6 million doses would translate to 390,000 Filipinos unprotected from COVID-19 from AstraZeneca vaccine vs. only 78,000 individuals under either Pfizer or Moderna’s vaccines.
“Given current coronavirus statistics, this means reducing deaths by a factor of 4.87 (Coronavirus death rate: 1.937 percent), or almost 7557 deaths vs 1551 deaths," he said.
“More than being merely a public health question, it is a leadership question: Should we spend more to save more, or should we spend less to save less? But this is a question that does not need an answer as yet, because all vaccines have not yet reached final regulatory approvals," Ridon said.