The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) will likely raise tropical cyclone wind signal number 3 during the passage of tropical storm “Ulysses” (international name “Vamco”) over Luzon.
As of Tuesday morning, Signal No. 1 has been raised over Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, eastern portion of Masbate (Aroroy, Pio V. Corpuz, Cataingan, Palanas, Uson, Dimasalang, Masbate City, Mobo, Baleno) including Ticao and Burias Islands, southeastern portion of Quezon (Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Buenavista, San Andres, San Narciso), Northern Samar, northern portion of Samar (Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An, Tarangnan, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Gandara, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao), and the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Maslog, Dolores, Oras, San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad).
These areas can expect 30 kilometers per hour (kph) to 60 kph of winds or intermittent rains within 36 hours from the time the tropical cyclone warning has been raised.
More areas in the Bicol region, Eastern Visayas, and Southern Luzon may also be placed under Signal No. 1 in the 11 a.m. bulletin of PAGASA.
Signal No. 2 may be hoisted in some areas of the Bicol region as early as Tuesday evening.
Based on the intensity forecast, the highest wind signal to be hoisted during the passage of “Ulysses” is Signal No. 3, PAGASA said.
PAGASA estimated the location of Ulysses at 555 km east of Virac, Catanduanes at around 4 a.m. on Tuesday, maintaining maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph.
“Ulysses” could intensify into a severe tropical storm by Tuesday evening, and may reach typhoon status by Wednesday morning.
It could reach its peak intensity or 140 kph to 155 kph by Wednesday afternoon or evening, and make landfall at or near this intensity.
PAGASA said “Ulysses” may continue to move generally northwest on Tuesday, then turn more westward by Wednesday.
Based on its latest forecast track, the center of “Ulysses” is more likely to make landfall over Quezon province on Thursday morning, with a close approach to Catanduanes and Camarines Norte by Wednesday afternoon and evening, respectively.
However, PAGASA noted that the slight shift in the orientation of the track forecast shows an increasing likelihood of landfall over Bicol region by Wednesday afternoon or evening.
The trough or extension of “Ulysses” may bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Aurora, Quezon, Bicol region, Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao region.
Moderate to heavy rains associated with the rainbands of “Ulysses” may prevail beginning Wednesday over the Bicol region and portions of Eastern Visayas.
However, as early as now, weather specialist Chris Perez advised the public, particularly those in Metro Manila, Bicol region, Southern Luzon, and Central Luzon to prepare for the possible direct effect of this weather disturbance in the coming days.
PAGASA warned that flooding, rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows or lahar may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly susceptible to these hazards.