The Philippine peso’s rally has defied the odds as the global pandemic raged. Now as the currency stalls, the nation’s trade data could bring a second wind.
A widening current account surplus and narrowing trade gap helped propel the peso to the top of the Asia-Pacific currency leader board by mid-2020. The bullish trend continued through August even as the coronavirus disrupted global supply chains.
But the economic impact of the pandemic is biting. The country has recorded the second-worst outbreak in Southeast Asia and is limiting the movement of people in its capital through November. Overseas remittances -- typically a currency tailwind -- have slumped as Filipinos working abroad have less to send home.
This week’s trade data could be key to a turn in the peso’s fortunes between now and year end. Remittances are unlikely to deliver the customary boost heading into the holiday season, but a narrowing in the trade deficit due to a continued slump in imports could compensate, according to analysts at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.
“The improving trade balance could be sufficient to see a return of peso strength into Christmas,” Dhiraj Nim and Khoon Goh wrote in a note dated Oct. 26.
The peso may also benefit if risk appetite for Asian assets picks up once the U.S. election is out of the way.
“The outlook for the Philippine peso is still quite constructive, and renewed portfolio flows may provide another wave of strength in coming weeks,” said Christy Tan, market strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Singapore. She sees dollar-peso ending December at 48.0.