Study suggests ‘curve has not yet flattened,’ predicts COVID-19 cases in NCR, Cebu to increase by the end of June

Published June 12, 2020, 12:00 AM

by manilabulletin_admin

By Joseph Almer Pedrajas 

The number of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) cases in the Philippines might reach 40,000 by end of June, based on the latest study and forecast of a team from the University of the Philippines (UP).

This is among the findings of a team composed of Dr. David Guido of the UP Institute of Mathematics, Professor Ranjit Rye of the Department of Political Science, and Ma. Patricia Agbulos of Octa Research.

They conducted a study on the “effects of increased mobility on community transmissions” using data provided by the Department of Health between March 1 to June 8, 2020.

“Using the current value of R nought, based on the current number of cases in the Philippines (including uncategorized cases) and assuming the trends continue, this projects to a total of 40,000 COVID-19 cases by June 30, with 1,850 deaths,” according to the study.

The current reproduction number of COVID-19 cases in the country, the study points out, “is still greater than 1, and measured at around 1.2,” which indicates that “the pandemic is still spreading and the curve has not yet flattened.”

The study projects that, by June 30, the number of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region might go up to 16,500, with 1,070 deaths. In Cebu, meanwhile, it might reach up to 11,000 cases, with 90 deaths.

“There is still a backlog of 6,359 cases, the difference between the number of individuals who tested positive, based on the reports of the testing centers, and the official number of cases in the Philippines,” the study finds.