Nov. inflation seen at 1.3% – analyst

Published November 28, 2019, 12:00 AM

by manilabulletin_admin

By Lee C. Chipongian

Security Bank Corp. economist Robert Dan Roces said inflation likely increased to 1.3 percent for the month of November from October’s 0.8 percent.

In a commentary, Roces said they have a forecast range of one percent to 1.6 percent for November inflation.

“We expect inflation to be at or slightly below two percent by December, and our 2019 average inflation estimate is at 2.5 percent. This remains consistent with the prevailing assessment of a benign inflation outlook over the policy horizon for the rest of year,” he said.

Roces also reiterated that inflation levels have bottomed-out in October relative to 2018 inflation which peaked in September and October last year.

For 2019, he said the “main causes of last year’s price spikes have been muted:

Global crude prices have relatively been stable for the month, while fulfillment of shipments for imported rice plus local harvests ensure more than enough supply of rice in the market.” The BSP has a 2019 inflation forecast of 2.5 percent, and 2.9 percent for 2020 and 2021.