El Niño increasing up to 65% as early as next month — PAGASA

Published August 29, 2018, 7:51 PM

by Roel Tibay

By Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz

The government weather bureau says the likelihood of an El Niño weather event developing as early as next month has further increased to 65 percent.

According to Ana Liza Solis, OIC of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration’s (PAGASA) Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, the country is still experiencing a neutral weather condition, where there is neither La Niña nor El Niño.

This climate scenario will persist until September. However, Solis said there is about 65 percent chance that an El Niño weather pattern will develop between September and November.

“The chance an El Niño developing thereafter will increase further up to 78 percent in the first quarter of 2019,” Solis explained.

“We can expect drier condition in some parts of the country by the first quarter next year,” she added.

PAGASA climatologist Ger Anne Marie Duran said the country can expect two or three tropical cyclones in September.

She described the track of tropical cyclones in September as mostly landfalling or crossing the landmass of Luzon. Some cyclones may recurve, she added.

Duran said rainfall will be generally near normal over Luzon and Mindanao, while it will be generally below normal in Visayas next month.