MANILA, Philippines — The composite leading economic indicator (LEI) continued its upward trend after it weakened in the second quarter of 2011, indicating a positive outlook for the country’s economy.

The National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) reported that for the first quarter of 2012, the LEI posted 0.238 from a revised 0.158 in the fourth quarter of 2011.

The latest LEI computations show the index in firmer positive territory auguring well for the domestic economy to start off the year of the dragon.

Of the 11 indicators that make up the composite LEI, eight contributed positively. The positive contributors included visitor arrivals, stock price index, hotel occupancy rate, wholesale price index, total merchandise imports, electric energy consumption, consumer price index, and number of new businesses.

The combined share of positive contributors for the first quarter increased to 82.1 percent from 65.5 percent in Q4 2011, bolstering the healthier prospects for the economy.

On the other hand, the negative contributors included terms of trade index, money supply, and foreign exchange rate. The negative contributors accounted for 17.9 percent of the total contribution.

From the fourth quarter 2011 to the first quarter 2012 LEI, there were three shifts in the direction of contribution: total merchandise imports and wholesale price index, from negative to positive, and foreign exchange rate, from positive to negative. (EHL)