MANILA, Philippines — Private economists forecast that inflation is slowing down for this year and 2012 mainly because the slower growth of the global economy has eased inflation pressures while prices of commodities seem to be leaning more on the lower side, a survey by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas showed.

The BSP survey was conducted in September and released in the BSP’s third quarter inflation report only last Friday.

Based on the survey, 45 private forecasters think inflation has slowed down, with mean inflation forecast for 2011 dropping to 4.5 percent in the third quarter compared to 4.7 percent in the quarter ending in June.

For 2012, their numbers show that the mean inflation forecast remained at 4.3 percent.

“Analysts noted that the recent easing of global commodity prices as well as expectations of slower global economic growth due to the euro zone’s continuing debt crisis and the weak US economy would dampen inflationary pressures going forward,” said the BSP in its review of the September survey.

Based on the probability distribution on the forecasts provided by 10 out of 13 of the private forecasters, the central bank also noted that there is a 73.3 percent chance that average inflation this year could settle within 4.1 percent to five percent in 2011, still within the 3-5 percent inflation target set by the BSP.

On Friday, the government announced that inflation in October rose to 5.3 percent (2000-based Consumer Price Index) from 4.6 percent in September. Using the 2006-based CPI, inflation increased to 5.2 percent in October from 4.8 percent the previous month.

This brings the 10-month inflation average to 4.5 percent using the 2000-base and 4.8 percent for the 2006-base year.

The central bank said the increase in inflation rate was because of the higher prices of most food items, notably vegetables and fish, which reflected the agricultural damages wrought by typhoons Pedring and Quiel. The increase in electricity and water rates also contributed to the higher inflation during the month.

The BSP said that based on the latest baseline projections, a lower inflation path remains as trend, with the upside risks to the inflation outlook expected to recede on renewed uncertainty over the pace of global economic recovery. Also, inflation expectations are well-contained and declining, and going forward the recent easing of commodity prices could dampen them further, said the BSP in its inflation report.

While there is scope for the BSP to “pause and assess” the outlook for inflation and growth, it has maintained a steady monetary policy so far.

The BSP said it is “mindful” of the remaining upside risks to inflation such as the potential increases in liquidity due to strong capital inflows, which could lead to excessive credit demand and contribute to asset price bubbles.